I hear faint footsteps in the distance
Forlorn fathers and miserable mothers
Hide your children!
Here comes the one we were warned of
The one to make order out of chaos
The iron heart
The iron hand
The iron will
Feel the power of the will
The new order is the old order
Will to power!
The order of things
It is restored
The eagle rises
The fasces sways in the wind
Small and great shall obey
Taxes they pay
Subdued nations they pray
They shall welcome the eagle
They shall bow ‘fore the Caesar
He awaits it all
Stiff your arm and click your heels
He looks forward to it
To your cold and broken
“Hail Caesar!”
___________________________
Many of my ruminations of late concern the early 20th century German philosopher of history Oswald Spengler. The above poem of my own authorship is a product of such ruminations as are the ensuing passages that serve as an accompaniment to this poem. In particular there is one Spenlgerian image that strikes me, that of the Caesar.
Spengler's Caesar is the harbinger of the final season of a civilization according to his cyclical understanding of history and the major civilizations who move it, including our own. The Caesar comes to make order out of chaos, stabilize the unstable with his iron will and iron fist. This is not a man of peace. This is a tyrant who will usher in Spenlger's Imperium Mundi as Octavian did two thousand years ago. The Caesar will put an end to the infighting but only because the necessary blood has already been shed. He will resolve the questions of his day through iron and blood, as Bismarck did. You will say what he wants you to say. You will welcome your slavery and love the strokes of whips upon your skin. You will romanticize your oppression and happily turn in friend and family member to the lion's den.
How do I come to so morbid a conclusion you ask? Do you dare compare us to the savages of two millennia ago? “But how could your servant, a mere dog, do such a monstrous thing?” you ask? You fancy yourself more enlightened and democratic than your forefathers yet let us not delude ourselves into believing that we cannot descend into savagery in the faces of threats, real or perceived. Remember, you and I are products of the 20th century in which the art of industrialized murder was perfected. The Germans too fancied themselves enlightened yet fell into the strong delusion. They followed their Caesar into war and genocide and you too will follow yours unless you are willing to pay your price.
Furthermore, look around you. Look at how social cohesion here comes apart at the seams. Check your bank account, your fridge, your wallet. Watch the evening news, scroll through your Twitter feed. What do you see? Violence? Civil unrest? Economic stratification? The erosion of the dominant western culture and way of life? You would be correct to surmise that we live in times of turbulence not seen in the western world since the 1960s at the minimum, and maybe today's world is more tense than those of our parents and grandparents. Gone is the "calm" period of the 1990s into which we were born where the western liberal democratic world order faced no existential threat. 9/11 shook us out of this period of relative peace but it was also a moment of solidarity in the western world that has become unimaginable today. Not even the vast death toll and other damage from Covid-19 can unify us now. Nor can the obvious threat from Communist China or Putinist Russia. The divisions run so deep.
Such times of turmoil present fertile ground for the sirens of authoritarianism to sing their song and drag many men to the depths of depravity. It is one of the central themes of history, a movie adapted into more settings than I could name. Weimar Germany and the penuries faced by the German public led to the rise of Hitler. World War One's devastation in Russia led to the rise of Bolshevism. Similar hardship led to the rise of Maoism in China. These are examples from the last century alone. Going back further examples abound. Julius Caesar, the namesake of Spengler's archetype was a product of the civil wars and social instability that racked late Republican Rome. Spengler's Caesar will be a product of similar conditions that are beginning to manifest themselves in our own time.
The last harbinger of impending Caesarism that I wish to discuss is the changing attitude of westerners. The general consensus in the west for the last two or three generations has been to celebrate the peaceful transition of power and the vigorous yet respectful debate of the day's issues. There was respect for those on the other side of the aisle save for amongst extremists who lived on the margins of western political life. Today, this consensus is coming apart before our eyes. The average westerner today, particularly those of my generation (the twenty somethings) tend to epouse with greater frequency more authoritarian attitudes with much harsher opinions of those who opine differently. Those are no longer people with whom we respectfully disagree but enemies who are to be silenced and neutralized. The instinct is no longer to counter-argue but to attack. Any political debate on social media involving supporters of any political leader of note will not be much of a debate at all but rather a spate of personal attacks and accusations. The leaders themselves encourage this behavior either directly or through dog whistles. Censorship by big-tech or any other forum is decried but only when directed at the wrong side of the political aisle. It is accepted and even celebrated when it targets the other side. Bigger and more intravenous government is now accepted in the holy name of the agenda. Only the agenda matters. The means by which it is implemented are secondary to many in today's western world.
Further to the previous point the issue of political deification is more prevalent than at any time since the world wars in the west. It has become commonplace to see politicians depicted as saints or in the presence of Jesus or of the angels. Even the staunchly religious have not proven immune to such behavior which they would normally consider blasphemous as well as ludicrous. Politicians are not treated as public servants who make good and bad decisions and are praised and criticized accordingly, but as angels or demons. The same policy position is bad or good depending on who says it rather than what the data and past precedent say. Who among us has not seen the Nadia Comaneci level mental gymnastics of those who simply will not admit that their chosen political god is capable of any wrongdoing or simple political gaffe? Such polarization in political discourse reflects a population ripe for the acceptance of a Caesar, a Duce, a Fuhrer. Again, the dysfunction of Weimar Germany that presaged the rise of Nazism comes to mind.
At this point, it should be clear that I believe that Caesarism will come to the west. Closer to home, I believe that the authoritarian past of the old world will follow its descendants to America. There appears to be no end to the dysfunction in sight. We are a society paralyzed by political polarization and gridlock. We are fast becoming a society in want of a master and we shall indeed get one.
How soon? I do not believe we are quite there yet. I do not believe Caesar has returned from Gaul yet but the signs are that he will not be long. All over the west, we see an embrace of authoritarianism at levels not seen since the 1930s. This is no longer merely the abode of radical academics and fringe groups. Extremisms are making their way from opposite directions into the mainstream and already we are seeing them clash in the streets of western cities. Today it is with fists and clubs. Tomorrow it will be with guns. Already we have seen the rise of leaders who appeal to public anger and frustration. Already we have seen them attacked by the establishment who rightly see them as threats. Whether or not these leaders are men of good conscience or not is beside the point. The point is that figures analogous to the Roman Gracchi have already arrived on the scene. They are more than elected leaders. They are expressions of pent up frustration and anger with the current order of things. They are not Caesars but they are signs that confidence in our liberal, Republican institutions is eroding. Furthermore they are indicators of where we are on the timeline before the arrival of the Caesar should Spengler's Model hold for our civilization. The Gracchi lived about a century before Caesar's victory over Pompey and the rapid transition from republic yet super power to a full fledged, world dominant empire. This does not mean we are a century away from Caesarism however. It may be more. It may be less. What we know is that the first signs are visible.
And what of external threats? There is much talk of the 21st century being the Chinese century. I wonder if there were many Romans in that tumultuous 2nd century BC that thought likewise of Mithridates or Jugurtha or of the Seleucids or Parthians. It is true that China is ascendant and a serious threat. So was the USSR. Both however have underlying weaknesses. China has a large, but fragile economy. It is also fraught with internal issues ranging from ethnic tensions to demographic problems much like the west. It is difficult to paint a wholly accurate picture of China's strength given all the propaganda one must sift through. However it is clear that they are the most pressing threat to the west and the most likely adversary once the 21st century comes to its defining conflict. By this I mean the world order defining conflicts that we seem to go through every century. (the world wars, the Napoleonic Wars, the Seven Years War etc.) I do not believe that nuclear weapons will avert such a conflict much longer. Any error in judgement can cause an explosion. The tensions are quite severe now and the sense of weakness in the west is something China seeks to capitalize on. This creates a climate ripe for the kind of "world wars" period that Spengler discussed; a period like China's warring states period or Greece's Peloponnesian War.
In order for the west to reach the state of Imperium Mundi that the western Caesars can rule per the Spenlgerian model the west must emerge victorious from the 21st century's warring states period. Given the overwhelming military expenditures and technological might of just the United States, let alone in tandem with Britain, France etc. China may have Russia and states like Iran, North Korea etc. in their corner but the alliance with Russia is uncertain and these other states are militarily weaker than the NATO states. Both sides possess nuclear weapons. I believe the west will be violently shaken out of its current complacency and all pretense of strategic patience as was the case in the Second World War. Such a beast would be indomitable. Other threats like the Russians and the Islamists face this same problem.
However all victories come at a price. All great wars bring even in victory great social, demographic and economic strains. The present and future wars of the west are no exception. As was the case for Rome in the late republican period this leads to heightened civil unrest. From this emerge strong men, iron willed leaders who offer all the answers. Each offers radically different answers and before long, factions are fighting for control. For now, the west's Social War is largely confined to social media. There is no Sulla yet, no Marius, no Pompey, no Caesar. Such figures are not long to arrive. We have seen in recent times a new breed of politician that receives and expects blind, unswerving loyalty. Political discourse is less about the nations now and more about the figures. The moderate voices are hated and ignored by the different clans of extremists. People no longer want to hear about the complexity of issues, merely about solutions, however simplistic and half-baked. Eventually the divisions lead to bloodshed, chaos and a sense of impending doom. Naturally, it is here that the masses look for a savior, a charismatic figure with answers and a comforting message. It is here where ears are most receptive to extreme messages because the old guard will have shown itself unable to solve problems and assuage concerns. Faith in liberal democracy erodes due to gridlock and the hyper-partisanship of bodies like Parliament, Congress, the Senate etc.
Already in our time, there is much discussion on how democracy is in retreat. The last few years of annual Freedom House reports can attest. The seductive pull of strongman is becoming stronger. They are not being imposed on an unwilling population like in post-war Europe. They are being democratically elected. In Europe and America, democracy is not imploding yet, but the danger is now clear. As I stated in the beginning of this piece, when authoritarianism comes to America and western Europe, people will welcome it. When the Caesar comes, it will be more akin to Hitler entering Vienna in 1938 than Hitler entering Paris in 1940.
So what will the new Caesarism look like? How will it compare to the Caesarisms of the past? For starters, it will be the first true Imperium Mundi. Today's globalized, well connected world has the diplomatic and technological infrastructure in place for a true global empire. The great empires of the past did not. Even the British Empire was not a true global empire and the United States is still a republic though like late republican Rome already a dominant military and economic power capable of morphing into a full fledged empire. Perhaps western Caesarism will come from America. Perhaps it will be from the European Union (revived Roman Empire?) Or perhaps Brittania will once again rule the waves. Maybe NATO becomes an all encompassing western political union.
As for daily life? The two most prevalent visions of future authoritarianism in the west are those of Orwell's 1984 and Huxley's Brave New World. My hunch is that the new authoritarianism will draw on characteristics from both. The sheer power of today's technology allows for a level of surveillance that was unfathomable to our ancestors. Big Brother truly would be watching your every move. Perhaps we are not far away from having even our thoughts monitored. Eyes will be everywhere. But oppression comes with pleasure or at least the illusion of it. The Romans had bread and circuses. The people of Huxley's Brave New World had soma. We may have social media, vacuous celebrity gossip and whatever barbaric pastime that will substitute for gladiator battles. Most likely the news will be reduced to convenient euphemisms. Like the great empires of the past, expect ethnic strife, war and maybe even eugenics. Regardless of the evils associated with Caesarism and the Caesar, the masses will embrace it. You will embrace it. You will learn to love your lashes and glorify the gore all around you.
What of the west's standing in the world. Should Spengler be right, the west at the arrival of the Caesar will have enough yet hit the apex of its political and military power. However, the cultural and intellectual might will have long since peaked. Maybe it already has. Already, universities are less institutions of learning than they are factories of grievances. Students are less studious and more litigious. Art falls into two categories; stale and unimaginative, or shocking for shocking's sake with no real science or philosophy behind it. Already the intellectual has lost the lofty prestige of the past and is deeply resented in many circles. All this will make it easy for the Caesar to rail against the intellectual class just like political gridlock will allow him to do so against the old political establishment. The Caesar will stoke grievances but of those who wish for a return to an idealized past. He will appeal to the old religiousness. Lo, a second religiousness. He will appeal to the historical figures of the past and make of himself their equal. After a period of instability that broke the faith in liberal democracy will come a new stability, a new Pax Romana but at a cost. To appease the gods the sacrifice will have to be made. The liberal democratic order will be tied to the altar, bled dry and burned. Perhaps the process is well and truly underway. Perhaps we have become as liberal as we will be.
At this point we will have entered our civilizational winter though initially it will feel like a rebirth. Our greatness will no longer be our human excellence but our brute force. The bestial instincts long suppressed will now be the norm. The concentration of power in the hands of one man will eventually bear its fruit and other ambitious men who will not be denied their power will arise. Like Rome, eventually, we will begin to gnaw at ourselves. By the time the barbarians arrive at our gates we will have largely emaciated ourselves under the weight of our own iniquity. Eventually the Caesar will either become weak or give way to weaker Caesars who will not be able to hold the empire together.
Ultimately, the Spenlgerian model is but a model. It has so far proven insightful and frighteningly accurate. We can see it materializing before us. That said, here are some words of comfort. We still live in a society that is liberal and democratic. The collapse of that liberal democratic order and the advent of the Caesar are not yet imminent. It is therefore incumbent on our generation to try to extend this period of peak liberalism as long as we can. We must recognize the authoritarian attitudes within ourselves. We must be aware of the social trends that are helping usher in the age of Caesarism. We must be vigilant and sober for the new aeon of which I have spoken at length is no golden dawn as some might imagine it. It will be a cold, dark night that will devour the many for the benefit of the few. Whatever the political persuasion of the Caesar once he arrives, it will be imposed through iron and blood, not through dialogue and sophistry. We must prepare defenses but not against 'the other', rather against ourselves. It is we who are ushering in the age of Caesar. It is we who are squandering our democratic inheritance. It is we who have the power to ensure its survival for at least another generation. Now batter down the hatches, I hear the splashing of horses and men crossing the river. It might be Caesar returning from Gaul.
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